A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
